North Dakota State joined the Mountain West Conference in early February, arriving just in time to shake up the Division I scheduling landscape.
The Bison finished the 2025 season at 12–1 and captured the Missouri Valley Football Conference title — their second consecutive championship and seventh in the past decade.
North Dakota State has built the most dominant dynasty in modern FCS history, winning five straight national championships from 2011 to 2015, followed by another three from 2017 to 2019. The program also added national titles in 2021 and 2024.
Their first season at the FBS level comes with a favorable schedule: no Power Four opponents and six home games. As the newest member of the Mountain West prepares for the 2026 season, here’s a look at North Dakota State’s schedule and an early prediction of how the Bison could fare in each matchup.
Lock Wins
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Fordham (Sep. 5)
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@ Sacramento State (Sep. 19)
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UTEP (Oct. 31)
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Northern Illinois (Nov. 21)
Fordham is the easiest game to lock in as a win. Not only are the Rams an FCS opponent, they’re also coming off a one-win season. Sacramento State, like NDSU are promoting from the FCS level, but the Hornets are still unlikely to match North Dakota State’s physicality and depth.
UTEP and Northern Illinois also appear to be favorable matchups. NIU enters the season with an interim head coach, while UTEP regressed to 2–10 in 2025. In two seasons under Scotty Walden, the Miners have managed just four total FBS wins.
Favored Matchups
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@ Air Force (Sep. 12)
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Wyoming (Oct. 3)
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Nevada (Oct. 17)
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@ San Jose State (Nov. 28)
Each of these games is very winnable for the Bison. All four opponents finished the 2025 season with four or fewer wins, though they appear to be trending slightly upward compared to the teams in the previous tier.
If North Dakota State adapts quickly to the speed and depth of FBS competition, this group of games could swing the Bison toward a strong debut season.
Maybe Not Initially Favored
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Jacksonville State (Aug. 28)
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@ UNLV (Oct. 10)
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@ New Mexico (Oct. 24)
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@ Hawaii (Nov. 14)
None of these matchups are unwinnable for North Dakota State, but they represent the toughest stretch of the schedule.
The Bison could still close as slight favorites against Jacksonville State in their Week 0 opener. The remaining three games, however, present significant challenges. UNLV and New Mexico both had strong seasons in 2025, while Hawaii remains one of the toughest road trips in college football due to the travel and unique environment.
North Dakota State has the potential to make a strong first impression in the Mountain West. If the Bison win the games they’re expected to and steal one or two from the tougher tier, a 9–3 season is within reach.
Even in a more conservative projection, a 6–6 record feels like a realistic absolute floor for one of the most successful programs in recent college football history.